The tipping point is upon us
The age of the electric vehicle is almost here
BY JOHN HIGHAM: FORMER LEGISLATIVE DIRECTOR OF THE ELECTRIC AUTO ASSOCIATION, ELECTRIC AUTO ASSOCIATION MEMBER
Winners of the2021 EV Cannonball with their Porsche Taycan
I became a grandfather today. As I write this, my grandson is less than three hours old. I can’t help but look toward the future while contemplating the past. Somewhat ironically, Bob Dylan sings in the background: “The Times They Are A-Changin.”
What has this got to do with electric vehicles (EVs)? Well, everything, actually. Let me frame it this way; my grandfather warmed his house and cooked his dinner with wood he chopped with his own hands. I have never been more confident in saying that the generation born today will feel the same way about burning petrochemicals for mobility as I do about chopping wood to cook my dinner.
It’s an exciting time to be an EV enthusiast! Not just because lots of new models and genres (trucks!) are coming, but because these new models have a strong uptick in what I call the “Drivability Factor.” “The what?” you ask.
The Drivability Factor was first discussed in somewhat stark, mathematical terms here last year. In brief English, it is the ratio of how long it takes to charge an EV to how long the car can drive on that charge. For example, at freeway speeds, you can drive 65 miles in an hour. How long does it take you to put those 65 miles back into your EV? If it takes an hour, then your EV has a Drivability Factor of 1. If your EV can restore those 65 miles in 6 minutes (one-tenth of an hour) then your EV has a drivability of 10; you can drive 10 times as long as it takes to charge.
A high Drivability Factor will transform EVs into just ‘cars’
Stories are always a good way to illustrate a concept, and this story will be familiar to any early EV adopter. One of my first EVs was a BMW ActiveE, and in 2013, a group of ActiveE owners decided to meet in Morro Bay, California. The ActiveE did not have DC Fast Charging; all such cars have a Drivability Factor of far less than one.
Preparing for this 200-mile trip meant preparing for a 14-hour marathon in a car with 90 miles of range and a maximum rate of 22 miles worth of charge for every hour sitting at (the virtually non-existent) public Level 2 charger. The same drive would have been 3.5 hours in an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicle.
Even though the ActiveE was a blast to drive close to home, that experience proved to me that it wasn’t very “drivable.” In fact, it was very much undriveable. Today, my Tesla Model 3 can make that same trip without stopping to charge, but more to the point of this story, with a Drivability Factor of 7, those 200 miles can be replenished in about 30 minutes at a Supercharger. Very drivable.
The current “king” is the Porsche Taycan with a Drivability Factor of ~9. For evidence, look no further than its top marks in the EV Cannonball, accomplished by crossing the 2,811 miles from Manhattan to Los Angeles in just 44 hours and 25 minutes. This bested the previous record, set in a Model 3, by over 50 minutes.
Admittedly, the Porsche is an aspirational vehicle that is out of reach for many. But new EVs are on the horizon that will dethrone the Porsche, and at far more reasonable prices.
Setting a new standard in drivability
Two factors influence drivability; efficiency and charge rate. They go hand in hand, as you can have a very high charge rate, but if the efficiency is poor, all those kilowatt hours won’t take you very far.
Three new EVs set to hit the market in 2021 will push the envelope on the Drivability Factor. The Lucid Air will have an estimated Drivability Factor of 20 when it reaches consumers later this fall; for every minute the Air is charged, it will travel 20 minutes at freeway speeds. This will be the new standard against which all other EVs will be judged.
Much like the Porsche, the Air will be an aspirational vehicle and out of reach for many drivers. But the two EVs that I am particularly excited about are the Kia EV-6 and its first cousin, the Hyundai Ioniq 5. In my view, these EVs will be what changes everything going forward. Built on the same platform, the two new offerings from Korea are relatively affordable compared to other cars that have double-digit Drivability Factors (~11), at roughly half the MSRP of a Taycan or an Air.
The technology enabling the high “Drivability Factor” of the Korean cars is their 800V (or more) architecture. From a practical perspective, consumers do not really care about the voltage of the battery pack. They just want to add 200~300 miles of range in the time it takes to grab a sandwich and use the restroom. I could not have imagined this to be possible when I covered 200 miles in 14 hours on my first EV road trip less than a decade ago. But we are living it today.
The trend is looking good
In 2021, consumers can finally choose from several different makes of affordable EVs that are simply smoother, quieter, quicker at accelerating, and just a better driving experience than their ICE counterparts. This trend will no doubt continue as engineers push the envelope to replenish miles driven more quickly than the competition. Not only will consumers benefit, but the entire EV movement will, too.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that the purchase price of a new EV and an equivalent ICE vehicle will reach parity in 2026. That’s before fuel savings or other incentives are factored in. When incentives and costs of the entire life-cycle are included, we’re already at parity (or better) now.
That’s why I’m confident that when the economics are considered along with the advantages of today’s remarkable EVs, a revolution will emerge. Once an EV is experienced, going back to ICE will just seem like chopping wood to heat your home.
Sing it, Bobby — “The Times, They Are A-Changin.”