Battery advances will strengthen Biden’s EPA
Environmental safeguards become easier to enforce as battery technology improves.
By Peter DouglaS: Member, Electric Auto Association
Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael S. Regan
The lithium ion batteries that are used to power electric vehicles (EVs) have improved steadily over the years, and they are now poised to take a great leap forward. Tesla’s 4680 battery cell is vastly superior to any battery cell the company has manufactured in the past, and the upcoming Ultium batteries from General Motors are also very impressive.
Many manufacturers appear close to perfecting solid-state batteries with even more astonishing capabilities. This is great news for our planet as the global transition to EVs begins to accelerate in earnest. Consumer acceptance is the key to widespread EV adoption, and battery advances will soon make EVs more attractive than ever. They will travel much farther on a single charge, refuel with electricity much faster, and deliver improved mpg equivalent. Best of all, sticker prices will drop, intensifying competition with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
While improved consumer acceptance will drive EV adoption, it is difficult to envision adequate progress here in the U.S. without sustained pressure from government regulators. The ongoing efforts of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the California Air Resources Board (CARB) have been instrumental in supporting the emergence of zero emission powertrains, and these organizations will continue to play a critical role moving forward.
Countries around the globe are identifying target dates for ending the sale of ICE vehicles, and California Governor Gavin Newsom has directed CARB to do the same, pledging to phase out the sale of ICE vehicles by 2035. The election of President Joe Biden opens the door to federal zero emission vehicle mandates similar to those enacted in California along with nine other states.
EPA legal prospects looking up
The EPA’s authority to regulate greenhouse gases from vehicles is already on a solid legal footing. In 2007, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the EPA is allowed to regulate greenhouse gases (GHGs) under the Clean Air Act, and in 2009 the EPA made an official determination that GHGs threaten public health, a crucial legal finding. But the EPA is not authorized to implement draconian regulations on behalf of the atmosphere. When regulating the pollutants from light duty vehicles, the EPA is required to reconcile its obligation to protect the environment with the feasibility of the rules imposed on automakers.
The emergence of vastly improved EVs will make it much easier for the EPA to strike that balance in a way that is more favorable to the environment. The argument that it is not feasible to deploy a new generation of practical electric vehicles has now been severely undermined by automotive innovation. Nearly all automakers are currently manufacturing competitive EVs, and the astonishing growth of Tesla has demonstrated that lucrative market success is entirely possible. Some other nations are now well ahead of the U.S. in EV adoption, furnishing proof that entire national fleets can rapidly transition to electricity. All of this real world evidence confirming the feasibility of EVs has legal significance that will strengthen the EPA’s hand if it decides to implement federal Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandates.
An optimistic scenario based on more than just wishful thinking
It is difficult to predict exactly how the regulatory legal battles will play out, however, Biden’s EPA is in a strong position to negotiate an arrangement with automakers similar to the landmark agreement that President Barak Obama delivered in the first year of his presidency. This comprehensive deal led to the enactment of the Obama Administration’s corporate average fuel economy standards. California will likely retain its waiver to use its own approach, and CARB and EPA will work to harmonize their future regulations to the satisfaction of automakers.
It is also likely that the Trump Administration’s less aggressive Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule will not survive legal challenges and that Obama’s Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards will remain in effect through 2025. Automakers have dropped their support for the Trump Administration rollback, and Biden is demanding that all of President Donald Trump’s deregulatory efforts be reviewed. Critics have noted that the scientific justifications for Trump’s rollbacks were extremely shoddy. Trump’s lenient SAFE standards are anything but safe at this point.
Biden’s EPA will also be tasked with crafting new regulations that take effect in the 2026 model year, presenting an opportunity for a whole new regulatory framework. This could include phasing out the sale of ICE vehicles using something similar to California’s approach. The very best scenario would be a formal agreement with the support of automakers, the National Highway Traffic Safety Association, the EPA, and CARB, that guarantees a steady phase out of ICE vehicles starting in 2026 and culminating as early as 2035. If the ensuing rulemaking process finalizing such an agreement were to be concluded during Biden’s term, and Democrats were to retain control of the White House in 2024, the mandatory phase out would be well-positioned to withstand challenges down the road.
All of this optimism has been made possible by the astounding progress of EV technology. Automakers are quickly gearing up to manufacture EVs knowing that the world is determined to transition away from internal combustion engines. As global adoption continues to accelerate, the legal argument that full adoption is infeasible will crumble. Given the fact that the climate benefits of EVs are beyond dispute, a decisive victory in the regulatory arena appears well within reach. Knock on wood.